Snapshot of Holiday Sales Predictions 2023 

December 04, 2023
Holiday Sales Predictions

‘Tis the season of holiday shopping predictions! What will holiday retail sales be in 2023? We all want to know! For many retailers, the holiday season brings in about 20 percent of their annual sales, so a lot is on the line for a profitable year.

This year’s predictions are tricky when factoring in current economic uncertainty. High inflation makes the dollar worth less. This means that consumers may be spending more or the same amount as last year but buying fewer products as a result. There’s also a rise in consumer credit card debt as well as feelings of uncertainty about job security. How much these will impact sales remains to be seen. But it’s not all doom and gloom. 2023 holiday sales predictions are up!

We’ve assembled some predictions for a snapshot of what the pundits are saying. Are they right? We’ll know in a few weeks.

Let the shopping begin!

Holiday spending is expected to reach record levels during November and December and will grow between 3% and 4% over 2022 to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. This is lower than the past three years, but still in line with the average 3.6% increase from 2010 to 2019. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 7% and 9% to a total of between $273.7 billion and $278.8 billion. That figure is up from $255.8 billion last year.

National Retail Federation

Total holiday retail sales in the US will reach $1.317 trillion this year, a 4.5% increase YoY, according to our forecast. Holiday e-commerce sales will grow 11.3% to hit $253.71 billion. E-commerce will account for less than 20% of holiday retail sales but contribute nearly half of incremental spending gains.


According to ICSC’s 2023 holiday shopping forecast, retail sales are expected to grow 3.8 percent this holiday season. About 204 million people (87 percent) are expected to head to brick-and-mortar stores this holiday season, while three-quarters of respondents said they plan to make a purchase online and have the items shipped to them. Expected spending is evenly split between online and in-person shopping, with 41 percent of total expenditure expected to happen at a physical store, 42 percent to be spent online, and 17 percent on click-and-collect.

International Council of Shopping Centers

PWC’s holiday consumer survey indicates that consumers will increase spending by a healthy 7% this year, allocating an average of $1,530 for gifts, travel, and entertainment. Almost 40% of consumers will spend more overall than they did last year. 


Bain forecasts 3% nominal growth in US retail sales this holiday, the lowest since 2018.


BCG’s Holiday Spend Survey indicates optimism from consumers and a higher willingness to spend across categories compared to last year. In fact, 74% of consumers expect to spend the same or more this holiday season.

Boston Consulting Group

Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 3.5% and 4.6% in 2023 for the November-January timeframe, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast. 


New Holiday Research Report!

Want to learn what shoppers thought about their product experiences during the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales event? Download our new report, Unwrapped 2023: Product Content Performance in Peak Holiday Periods.

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